Momentum Signal Methodology

View JSONCanonicalBack to Data HubKnowledgeBack to Knowledge Directory
Quality: 90/100vv2calculation-framework
Open page·Open JSON

Directional historical signal for electricity price trend direction.

Definition

The momentum signal is a directional historical signal that summarizes whether a state's electricity prices appear to be accelerating, rising, stable, or falling. It is not a forecast.

Steps

  1. Use up to 24 most recent monthly points.
  2. Require at least 6 usable points for a signal.
  3. shortWindowChange = percent change from ~12 months ago to most recent.
  4. longWindowChange = percent change from ~24 months ago to most recent.
  5. acceleration = shortWindowChange - (longWindowChange / comparable_years_factor).
  6. Classify: accelerating (shortWindowChange > 3% AND acceleration > 1%), rising (shortWindowChange > 1%), falling (shortWindowChange < -1%), otherwise stable.
  7. momentumScore: accelerating = 2 + shortWindowChange, rising = 1 + shortWindowChange, stable = 0, falling = -1 + shortWindowChange.

JSON preview

Show JSON

Disclaimers